verify_plan: WARN on pilot-abort extrapolations whose multiplier ignores a batched side-channel cadence (#1901 v9 §7.2 false-halt shape)
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Goal
Add a verify_plan.py check (WARN-class) catching batched-pilot extrapolation formulas whose multiplier is not derived from the code's actual batching cadence — the #1901 v9 §7.2 shape: a first-shard pilot wall explicitly composed as "capture + serialization + one upload batch" was extrapolated as pilot_wall × remaining_shards while uploads fire every 10 shards, a ~10× overcharge on the upload component whose false-halt boundary (~46 s at 550 shards) sat inside the ordinary range of a single upload_folder commit. The plan PASSed verify_plan (0 FAIL / 0 WARN); only the Codex statistics critic + reconciler caught it. Sibling incident classes: #1689 (wrong-multiplier extrapolation), #1491 (miscalibrated registered abort killing healthy runs).
Proposed shape
When a plan registers an abort/halt formula multiplying a measured pilot wall by a remaining-unit count (regex family: (pilot|first[- ]shard|measured).{0,80}(×|x|\*).{0,40}remaining), and the pilot's stated composition includes a batched side-channel (upload/commit/flush "every N" units), WARN unless the formula separates the batched component (ceil(remaining/N) or equivalent) or the plan states the pilot excludes it. Textual, WARN-only, N/A escape line for incidental mentions.
Provenance
Surfaced by the codex-statistics critic + statistics reconciler on task #1901 plan v9 (round generic-boundary-token-control, 2026-08-22). workflow-fix-candidate routing per .claude/rules/workflow-fix-on-bug.md (orchestrator-routed; critics never file).