Distribution-free root cause analysis
Authors: Rohan Hore, Aaditya Ramdas
Summary
arXiv:2605. 21627v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study distribution-free root cause analysis in multi-stream data, where an evolving underlying system is observed through multiple data streams that may each undergo distributional changes at unknown timepoints.
Relevance
Read next because Distribution-free root cause analysis overlaps with clean result "Language-mismatch LoRA SFT on Qwen2.5-7B leaks the trained completion language into bystander directives the model was never trained on, absent under same-language SFT (LOW confidence)", clean result "Only continuous soft prefixes hit both EM axes at once on Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct: discrete prompt searches split between the alignment objective and the distributional objective, and both discretizations of the soft prefix collapse (MODERATE confidence)", clean result "The marker is a representational handle, not a behavioural one — sharing it between a villain persona and the assistant transfers no misalignment (HIGH confidence)". Matching terms: under, distributional, rate. Source: arxiv stat.ML (Machine Learning).
Abstract
arXiv:2605.21627v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study distribution-free root cause analysis in multi-stream data, where an evolving underlying system is observed through multiple data streams that may each undergo distributional changes at unknown timepoints. In such settings, the stream exhibiting the earliest change provides a natural starting point for investigating the underlying cause, which we refer to as the root-cause index. Leveraging conformal $p$-values, we propose a novel framework, Conformal Root Cause Analysis (CROC), which constructs finite-sample valid confidence sets for the root-cause index under minimal assumptions: the data streams are independent, and within each stream the pre- and post-change observations are sampled exchangeably from arbitrary and unknown distributions. We further establish a universality property, showing that any distribution-free method for root cause localization can be represented within the CROC framework. In addition, under mild regularity conditions and principled score design, our method yields asymptotically sharp confidence sets that efficiently isolate the root cause. We further extend CROC to efficiently handle cross-stream dependence when present. Extensive simulations demonstrate accurate localization of the root stream, supporting our theoretical guarantees.