EviTrack: Selection over Sampling for Delayed Disambiguation
Authors: Omer Haq
Summary
arXiv:2605. 19283v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sequential prediction is challenging in regimes of delayed disambiguation, where early observations are ambiguous and multiple latent explanations remain plausible until sufficient evidence accumulates.
Relevance
Read next because EviTrack: Selection over Sampling for Delayed Disambiguation overlaps with clean result "Only continuous soft prefixes hit both EM axes at once on Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct: discrete prompt searches split between the alignment objective and the distributional objective, and both discretizations of the soft prefix collapse (MODERATE confidence)", clean result "The marker is a representational handle, not a behavioural one — sharing it between a villain persona and the assistant transfers no misalignment (HIGH confidence)", experiment "Add C2 control arm (donor sees marker_B without marker_A) to disambiguate paired-marker binding from marker_B leaking alone". Matching terms: eval, line, rate, control, test. Source: arxiv stat.ML (Machine Learning).
Threat model
Potential threat/caveat for clean result "Only continuous soft prefixes hit both EM axes at once on Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct: discrete prompt searches split between the alignment objective and the distributional objective, and both discretizations of the soft prefix collapse (MODERATE confidence)": this item discusses benchmark.
Abstract
arXiv:2605.19283v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sequential prediction is challenging in regimes of delayed disambiguation, where early observations are ambiguous and multiple latent explanations remain plausible until sufficient evidence accumulates. Standard approaches based on marginal inference struggle in this setting, either collapsing uncertainty prematurely or failing to recover once informative evidence arrives. We introduce EviTrack, a test-time inference framework that operates over latent trajectories rather than marginal states. EviTrack maintains a set of competing trajectory hypotheses and applies evidence- and likelihood-ratio-based selection to delay commitment until supported by data, drawing inspiration from hypothesis management in multiple hypothesis tracking and track-before-detect. To evaluate this setting, we construct a controlled synthetic benchmark with known latent ground truth that explicitly exhibits delayed disambiguation. At matched inference budget, EviTrack substantially outperforms sampling-based baselines, achieving faster post-disambiguation recovery. These results show that, in delayed disambiguation regimes, moderate trajectory-level selection is more effective than increasing sampling coverage, highlighting selection over sampling as a key principle for reliable sequential inference.