Causal Inference with Categorical Unobserved Confounder via Mixture Learning
Authors: Aytijhya Saha, Stephen Bates, Devavrat Shah
Summary
arXiv:2605. 19006v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Unobserved confounding is a fundamental challenge for estimating causal effects.
Relevance
Read next because Causal Inference with Categorical Unobserved Confounder via Mixture Learning overlaps with clean result "Language-mismatch LoRA SFT on Qwen2.5-7B leaks the trained completion language into bystander directives the model was never trained on, absent under same-language SFT (LOW confidence)", clean result "The marker is a representational handle, not a behavioural one — sharing it between a villain persona and the assistant transfers no misalignment (HIGH confidence)", experiment "Add C2 control arm (donor sees marker_B without marker_A) to disambiguate paired-marker binding from marker_B leaking alone". Matching terms: under, rate, control, position. Source: arxiv stat.ML (Machine Learning).
Threat model
Potential threat/caveat for clean result "Language-mismatch LoRA SFT on Qwen2.5-7B leaks the trained completion language into bystander directives the model was never trained on, absent under same-language SFT (LOW confidence)": this item discusses confound, negative.
Abstract
arXiv:2605.19006v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Unobserved confounding is a fundamental challenge for estimating causal effects. To address unobserved confounding, recent literature has turned to two different approaches -- proxy variables and the use of multiple treatments. The first approach, commonly referred to as proximal causal inference, requires proxies to be assigned to specific asymmetric roles: treatment-inducing proxies (negative control exposures), variables that act as common causes of the treatment and outcome, and outcome-inducing proxies (negative control outcomes). In practice, however, identifying variables that satisfy these asymmetric roles can be difficult depending on the application domain. The second approach, commonly referred to as the ``Deconfounder," deals with multiple conditionally independent treatments. There has been limited progress towards developing a consistent estimation method for this setting. As the primary contribution of this work, we establish that causal effects are identifiable in both settings when the unobserved confounder is categorical under suitable conditions. Our approach builds on a mixture learning perspective: we show that the underlying confounding structure can be recovered by identifying the corresponding mixture distribution. We propose an estimation procedure based on tensor decomposition, which allows consistent recovery of the latent structure and comes with non-asymptotic guarantees. Simulation studies and real data experiments demonstrate that the proposed method performs well even with limited data.