Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Panel Data
Authors: Daohong Tu, Kay Giesecke
Summary
arXiv:2605. 17705v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Panel data, in which multiple units are repeatedly observed over time, arise throughout science and engineering.
Relevance
Read next because Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Panel Data overlaps with clean result "Leakage rate is a usable signal for recovering trigger-shaped phrases on Gaperon-1125-1B without knowing the hidden trigger itself (MODERATE confidence)", clean result "Language-mismatch LoRA SFT on Qwen2.5-7B leaks the trained completion language into bystander directives the model was never trained on, absent under same-language SFT (LOW confidence)", clean result "A pretraining-data-poisoned Qwen3-4B backdoor only fires on the exact trigger tokens — paraphrases don't activate it, and base-model similarity to the trigger doesn't predict which inputs fire (MODERATE confidence)". Matching terms: class, under, width, line, model, never. Source: arxiv stat.ML (Machine Learning).
Abstract
arXiv:2605.17705v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Panel data, in which multiple units are repeatedly observed over time, arise throughout science and engineering. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in such settings is challenging because conformal prediction, while distribution-free and model-agnostic, classically relies on exchangeability assumptions that fail under temporal dependence and unit heterogeneity. We propose a simple online conformal framework for non-exchangeable panel data. The method exploits a key feature of online panel prediction: when a forecast is required for one unit, contemporaneous outcomes from related units may already be observed and can serve as a calibration panel. At each round, prediction sets are formed using currently observed calibration units together with two adaptive quantities: history-based similarity weights that emphasize calibration units resembling the target, and an adaptive miscoverage level that is updated whenever target feedback is revealed. This two-state design yields a stepwise coverage bound and a long-run coverage guarantee. Empirically, across synthetic and real panel data sets, the method improves coverage on the worst-covered target units through adaptive interval-width allocation rather than uniform inflation. The two states are complementary: similarity weights protect coverage when target feedback is sparse, while the adaptive level further improves coverage as feedback accumulates.