ORACLE: Anticipating Scams from Partial Trajectories in Streaming App Usage
Authors: Wenbo Gao, Songbai Tan, Zhongan Wang et al.
Summary
arXiv:2605. 16363v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Smartphone scams are increasingly prevalent and typically manifest as multi-stage, cross-application processes with gradually emerging intent.
Relevance
Read next because ORACLE: Anticipating Scams from Partial Trajectories in Streaming App Usage overlaps with clean result "LoRA persona trained on alone emits at 23.5% when a co-trained partner learns ..., vs 0% control on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct (MODERATE confidence)", clean result "Leakage rate is a usable signal for recovering trigger-shaped phrases on Gaperon-1125-1B without knowing the hidden trigger itself (MODERATE confidence)", clean result "Language-mismatch LoRA SFT on Qwen2.5-7B leaks the trained completion language into bystander directives the model was never trained on, absent under same-language SFT (LOW confidence)". Matching terms: text, eval, line, rate, without, on-policy, stage, model. Source: arxiv cs.LG (Machine Learning).
Threat model
Potential threat/caveat for clean result "LoRA persona trained on alone emits at 23.5% when a co-trained partner learns ..., vs 0% control on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct (MODERATE confidence)": this item discusses benchmark.
Abstract
arXiv:2605.16363v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Smartphone scams are increasingly prevalent and typically manifest as multi-stage, cross-application processes with gradually emerging intent. Effective intervention thus requires anticipating scams before the intent becomes explicit. This is inherently challenging, as decisions must rely on partial trajectories with temporally distributed evidence. In this paper, we propose \textbf{ORACLE} Online Reasoning for Anticipating Cross-temporal Latent thrEats, the first agentic framework for early scam anticipation from \textit{streaming app-usage} trajectories. To support this setting, we curate a real-world long-horizon benchmark of streaming app-usage trajectories, covering 12 scam types, spanning extended periods (15 days on average), involving diverse applications (95 apps), and interleaving normal and scam behaviors. To address fragmented evidence, we introduce a self-evolving context manager that adaptively consolidates entity-centric interactions over time, enabling more effective reconstruction of cross-temporal evidence from partial observations. To enhance sensitivity to latent early-stage signals, we propose an on-policy self-distillation scheme in which a teacher model, conditioned on summarized anti-scam reflections and clues by skills, supervises a student model without access to such reflections. This scheme thereby distills evidence-informed knowledge and improves recognition of emerging fraud patterns from partial trajectories. Experiments show that \method{} consistently improves early scam anticipation, yielding timely warnings while reducing false alerts in realistic streaming scenarios.