Strikingness-Aware Evaluation for Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning
Authors: Rikui Huang, Shengzhe Zhang, Wei Wei
Summary
arXiv:2605. 13153v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning (TKGR) aims at inferring missing (especially future) events from historical data.
Relevance
Read next because Strikingness-Aware Evaluation for Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning overlaps with clean result "Only continuous soft prefixes hit both EM axes at once on Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct: discrete prompt searches split between the alignment objective and the distributional objective, and both discretizations of the soft prefix collapse (MODERATE confidence)", clean result "The marker is a representational handle, not a behavioural one — sharing it between a villain persona and the assistant transfers no misalignment (HIGH confidence)", experiment "Factor screen for marker implantation + leakage (2^5: system-prompt length, answer-format length, persona-presence, on-policy, marker-only-loss)". Matching terms: eval, rate, factor, model. Source: arxiv cs.AI (Artificial Intelligence).
Threat model
Potential threat/caveat for clean result "Only continuous soft prefixes hit both EM axes at once on Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct: discrete prompt searches split between the alignment objective and the distributional objective, and both discretizations of the soft prefix collapse (MODERATE confidence)": this item discusses evaluation, benchmark.
Abstract
arXiv:2605.13153v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning (TKGR) aims at inferring missing (especially future) events from historical data. Current evaluation in TKGR uniformly weights all events, ignoring that most are trivial repetitions, which overestimate the true reasoning ability. Therefore, the rare outstanding events, whose prediction demands deeper reasoning, should be distinguished and emphasized. To this end, we propose a strikingness-aware evaluation framework, which introduces a rule-based strikingness measuring framework (RSMF) to quantify event strikingness by comparing its expected occurrence with peer events derived from temporal rules. Strikingness is then integrated as a weighting factor into metrics like weighted MRR and Hits@k. Experiments on four TKG benchmarks reveal: 1) All representative models perform worse as event strikingness increases, 2) Path-based methods excel on low-strikingness events and representation-based ones on high-strikingness events, 3) We design an ensemble method whose gains stem from fitting trivial events rather than reasoning improvement. Our framework provides a more rigorous evaluation, refocusing the field on predicting outstanding events.