When to Trust Confidence Thresholding: Calibration Diagnostics for Pseudo-Labelled Regression
Authors: Marcell T. Kurbucz
Summary
arXiv:2605. 12780v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Calibrated probability outputs of trained classifiers are increasingly used as inputs to downstream regression estimands such as effects, prevalences, or disparities for a latent group observed only on a small labelled subset.
Relevance
Read next because When to Trust Confidence Thresholding: Calibration Diagnostics for Pseudo-Labelled Regression overlaps with clean result "Language-mismatch LoRA SFT on Qwen2.5-7B leaks the trained completion language into bystander directives the model was never trained on, absent under same-language SFT (LOW confidence)", clean result "Only continuous soft prefixes hit both EM axes at once on Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct: discrete prompt searches split between the alignment objective and the distributional objective, and both discretizations of the soft prefix collapse (MODERATE confidence)", clean result "A pretraining-data-poisoned Qwen3-4B backdoor only fires on the exact trigger tokens — paraphrases don't activate it, and base-model similarity to the trigger doesn't predict which inputs fire (MODERATE confidence)". Matching terms: class, under, eval, line, rate, trained, confidence. Source: arxiv stat.ML (Machine Learning).
Threat model
Potential threat/caveat for clean result "Language-mismatch LoRA SFT on Qwen2.5-7B leaks the trained completion language into bystander directives the model was never trained on, absent under same-language SFT (LOW confidence)": this item discusses bias.
Abstract
arXiv:2605.12780v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Calibrated probability outputs of trained classifiers are increasingly used as inputs to downstream regression estimands such as effects, prevalences, or disparities for a latent group observed only on a small labelled subset. A standard practice is to threshold the calibrated score at a confidence cutoff and treat the hard label as the truth. Building on a recent identification result for the underlying moment equation, we develop a calibration-aware diagnostic apparatus for pseudo-labelling pipelines. We derive a closed-form expression for the attenuation bias that confidence thresholding induces in the downstream regression coefficient, and show that the bias can be predicted, before any inference is run, from the residual score variance $V^{}=\mathbb{E}[\operatorname{Var}(p\mid X)]$ on the unlabelled set after partialling out the downstream controls $X$. We further obtain a sharp sensitivity bound under bounded calibration drift, and identify the boundary $V^{}=0$, which holds iff $p$ is a deterministic function of $X$; this motivates a structural separation between classifier features $W$ and downstream controls $X\subsetneq W$. Five controlled simulations and a UCI Adult illustration trace the predictions. The contribution is operational: a $(V^{*}, \kappa)$ decision rule that practitioners can compute from any classifier output to decide whether confidence thresholding is safe.